Every time I'm asked about the imminent Australian election I tell people I have no real sense that Australia is ready to dump the Liberal / National Coalition led by John Howard. People react as if I'm mad or still not assimilated after 8 years here. Well, I simply think the right wing leadership of this nation is far more resilient than the rather self-deluding Labor Party hopes / believes / wishes (Take your pick). I hope I'm wrong. I fear I'm not.
Here's a short story from this evening's Sydney Morning Herald online:
The Federal Government has clawed back significant ground against Labor in the latest Newspoll but still trails by a margin of 55 to 45 per cent in two-party terms.
The Coalition's vote is up 4 points from the previous Newspoll a fortnight ago, despite the recent Liberal leadership turmoil, while Labor's vote fell four points, according to the ABC.
The narrowing of the gap from a massive 18 points to 10 points still means the Coalition would lose office if an election were held now but the improvement is likely to end speculation about John Howard being replaced as Prime Minister before the election.
It will also provide a boost to the Government as many of its MPs had expected their stocks in the polls to worsen after uncertainty about Mr Howard's leadership dominated last week's headlines and he was forced to announce he would hand over the leadership to Peter Costello at some point during the next term if the Coalition won this year's election.
The Herald Neilsen Poll last Monday ignited the leadership troubles when it showed Labor ahead 57-43 in two-party terms and that the Coalition's primary vote had dropped to 39 per cent compared with Labor on 49 per cent.
Labor is urging Mr Howard to call the election this weekend, although some in government ranks believe he will continue to use the benefits of incumbancy and could wait a few more weeks before formally starting the election campaign.
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